The Coffee Market Is Already Looking
Beyond Brazil’s Latest Harvest

Why flowering season may matter more than harvest in the next 90 days

As fresh Brazilian coffees begin their journey towards Europe, the 2026/27 harvest is entering its final stages.

Around 85-90% of the crop is expected to be harvested by the end of August. New-crop coffee is gradually entering the export pipeline, with fresh Brazilian crop expected to become more visible in Europe from late October onwards.

Production is expected to be stronger than in recent challenging seasons, supported by Brazil’s positive phase in the biennial production cycle and favourable conditions earlier in the season.

At the same time, the harvest itself has not been without challenges. Rainfall during June and July complicated harvesting and drying in several producing regions and may contribute to greater variability in quality and bean size.

As the current crop moves towards completion, our attention is therefore also turning to the next stage of the production cycle: flowering.

THE CROP WE KNOW

A solid production outlook, with more variable harvest conditions

The 2026/27 harvest combines strong production potential with more challenging harvesting conditions.

Brazil entered the season in a positive phase of its biennial cycle, while favourable conditions earlier in the season supported good cherry development and solid production potential.

Harvesting began in late April, but rainfall persisted into June and July in several producing regions, particularly across parts of Southeast Brazil. Repeated rain slowed harvesting and drying, while some cherries dropped to the ground before or during picking.

Prolonged moisture exposure can increase the risk of fermentation, physical defects and quality deterioration, while making efficient drying more difficult.

The impact has not been uniform across Brazil. Weather and harvesting conditions have varied between producing regions, meaning quality and bean size are likely to differ from one area and lot to another.

Field feedback currently points to somewhat smaller bean sizes in parts of the crop, rather than the larger screens that had been expected earlier in the season.

Overall, the production picture remains positive, but the 2026/27 crop is likely to show greater variation in quality and screen size between regions and lots.

THE CROP WE DON’T KNOW

As harvest ends, the next production cycle begins

Coffee markets rarely focus only on the crop already being harvested or entering warehouses.

They also look ahead to the next production cycle.

Over the coming weeks, coffee trees across Brazil’s major arabica-growing regions will enter the main flowering period -one of the most important stages in determining the potential of the next crop.

Successful flowering supports fruit set and future yield potential. Irregular flowering, heat stress or poorly distributed rainfall can introduce uncertainty long before the next harvest begins.

The 2027/28 Brazilian crop is therefore still a story of potential rather than certainty.

And uncertainty is something coffee markets tend to watch closely.

WHY BRAZIL MATTERS MORE THAN ANY OTHER REGION

What happens in Brazil has a global impact on coffee supply

Brazil’s importance to the coffee market comes down to scale.As the world’s largest coffee producer, Brazil accounts for around 40% of global coffee production. Developments in its major producing regions -particularly Minas Gerais, can therefore influence supply expectations well beyond the country’s borders.That makes the transition from one crop cycle to the next particularly important.While the current crop is moving into the supply chain, the first signals for the 2027/28 crop will emerge from the fields through rainfall, flowering and subsequent crop development.For traders working directly with origin, this means looking beyond headline production estimates and staying close to what is happening on the ground.

ENTER EL NIÑO*

A weather factor to follow during the flowering period

The upcoming flowering season coincides with an El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean.

The latest NOAA* assessment indicates that El Niño is expected to strengthen through the end of 2026, with a high probability of persisting into early spring 2027.

Naturally, this raises an important question:

What could this mean for coffee?

At this stage, it is too early to quantify a specific production impact on Brazil’s next crop.

The important point is that El Niño is a climate signal, not a production forecast.

What matters for coffee is how weather conditions actually develop across the producing regions during the critical flowering period.

THE MOST IMPORTANT DISTINCTION ABOUT EL NIÑO

Local weather conditions matter most

El Niño does not determine Brazilian coffee production on its own.Local weather does.For producers, the practical questions are:

  • Will the first rains arrive on time?
  • Will flowering occur uniformly?
  • Will temperatures remain manageable?
  • Will soil moisture support healthy development?
  • Will rainfall remain consistent after flowering?

These conditions will provide a much more meaningful indication of how the next crop is developing than the El Niño headline alone.

For the 2027/28 crop, the story will therefore unfold progressively through rainfall, flowering and subsequent crop development.

WHAT WE’LL BE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT 90 DAYS

Following the crop from origin

As Brazil moves into the flowering period, EFICO will be following several indicators across the main coffee-growing regions.

RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION
The timing, amount and consistency of the first seasonal rains.

FLOWERING
How strongly and uniformly flowering occurs across the crop.

TEMPERATURE
Periods of elevated temperatures and any potential heat stress during critical stages.

SOIL MOISTURE
Water availability as the new crop cycle gets underway.

ORIGIN FEEDBACK
Observations from cooperatives, producers and origin partners across Brazil’s main coffee regions.

Together, these signals will provide the first indications of how the 2027/28 crop is developing.

OUR VIEW FROM ORIGIN

From the current harvest to the next crop cycle

At the end of August, two crop stories are unfolding at the same time.

The 2026/27 Brazilian crop is approaching completion and gradually moving into the supply chain. Production is expected to be solid, while harvesting conditions have created some variability between regions and lots.

At the same time, the 2027/28 crop is only beginning to reveal its potential as flowering approaches.

For EFICO, the coming quarter will therefore be about following both sides of the cycle: monitoring the availability and quality of the current crop while staying close to origin as the next one develops.

Because long before the next harvest begins, the first indications of its potential can already be seen in the fields.

EFICO ORIGIN INTELLIGENCE

CURRENT CROP STATUS
2026/27 harvest nearing completion; around 85-90% expected to be harvested by the end of August

FRESH CROP AVAILABILITY IN EUROPE
Expected to become more visible from late October onwards

NEXT KEY MILESTONE
Brazilian flowering period, with September a key month to watch

NEXT CROP
2027/28

WHAT WE ARE FOLLOWING
Rainfall, flowering, temperature, soil moisture and feedback from origin

SOURCES & REFERENCES

Financial Times – El Niño threatens to disrupt the world’s most-traded commodities
-> For Brazil’s arabica crop, the most consistent effect is higher temperatures. Warmer winter weather reduces frost risk, but excessive heat accompanied by uneven rain can stress trees and reduce yields. Traders will be watching the flowering period between September and November, which will determine the potential of the next crop.

Financial Times – How will El Niño hit the world economy?

Noaa – National oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – El Niño / La Niña Today’s Status & News

WMO – World Meteorological Organization – Prepare for El Niño