In late January, our team travelled to Addis Ababa to cup the new crop and meet with our long-standing partners. The objective was clear: assess quality, evaluate availability, and understand firsthand how the 2025/26 harvest is developing.

The conclusion is straightforward. Cup quality is promising, washed coffees, however, will be limited. Prices are firm, and buyers who delay decisions risk losing access to preferred lots and key microlots as the season advances.

ETHIOPIA MARKET UPDATE

KEY TAKEAWAYS 

• Crop volume is lower, but overall quality remains excellent.
• Natural coffees are more prevalent; washed lots are limited.
• Cherry prices are at historic highs, while minimum export prices remain elevated despite NY market volatility.
• Rising production and labor costs are pressuring margins.
• Availability of EU-certified organic coffee is declining.
• Early commitments from roasters are strongly recommended to secure supply.

General Context

Observation: Ethiopia exported 470,000 tons of coffee in 2024/25 (+50% vs 2023/24).

Cause: Strong global prices, early sales of washed coffees, and the 2025 birr devaluation helped maintain competitiveness.

Impact: Export revenues reached USD 2.65 billion, nearly double the previous year; coffee now represents one-third of Ethiopia’s export earnings.

Outlook: The government targets USD 3 billion in exports for 2025/26, but with NY “C” prices declining and no repeat of the 2024/25 favorable conditions, this target is uncertain.

Regional Context: Despite this strong growth, Uganda overtook Ethiopia for the first time as Africa’s largest coffee exporter by volume, shipping 558,000 tons.

Regional Overview

SOUTH: Sidamo, Guji, Yirgacheffe

Observation: Crop size is smaller, and cherry prices have surged to 220–250 ETB/kg (~3x last year).

Cause: Driven by birr devaluation, strong global prices, and rising labor costs.

Market Response: Some operators had to close washing stations due to limited financing for the harvest, while farmers increasingly dry cherries at home to produce naturals for later sale.

Impact: Washed coffee volumes will be significantly lower, and prices are expected to remain high.

Outlook: Roasters should commit early to secure washed coffee volumes.

WEST: Djimmah, Limu, etc

Observation: Harvest was excellent in volume and quality; weather conditions supported maturation and drying.

Market Situation: Most of the crop (mainly natural coffee) is still held by farmers, and washed Limu volumes are higher than usual. Natural coffees are absorbed quickly by strong local demand.

Outlook:

• The West is expected to drive future volume growth, while Guji maintains its reputation for high-altitude quality.

• Authorities plan to allocate 100,000 additional hectares for coffee production; some exporters flag EUDR compliance concerns.

• Historic regions like Sidamo and Yirgacheffe are losing ground due to fragmented landholdings, outdated practices, and khat competition.

Harvest & Shipment Timelines

Observation: The harvest is slightly later than usual.

Logistics Context: Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea region are affecting shipping routes, with containers from Djibouti port likely rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, extending sea transit times.

Expected Arrival at Seabridge: Washed coffees: June 2026 | Natural coffees: July 2026

Outlook: The best coffees move early, so spot availability will be limited. Roasters should plan and commit early to secure volumes.

Market & Pricing Dynamics

Observation: Ethiopia uses weekly fixed minimum export prices, unlike most origins tied to NY ‘C’ differentials.

Cause: NY ‘C’ prices have declined, while Ethiopian minimums remain high, and farmers maintain strong price expectations.

Impact: Buyers face pricing pressure, creating a disconnect between local and global markets.

Outlook: Forward commitments help manage risk and secure allocations, while election-year policies aimed at stabilising the birr could further impact competitiveness.

Rising Costs at Farm Level

Observation: Labor and cherry costs have increased sharply.

Cause: Rising wages and competition for ripe cherries.

Impact: Cherry pickers wait longer for full ripeness, increasing operational pressure during harvest.

Outlook: Higher farm-level costs are likely to keep export prices elevated, reinforcing the importance of forward contracts.

Decline in EU Organic Volumes

Observation: EU regulations now require individual farmer certification, replacing group certification.

Impact: Certification costs have increased, creating administrative burdens and making it financially unrealistic for many cooperatives.

Outlook: The availability of EU-certified organic coffee is expected to decline, so roasters should plan early to secure sufficient organic supply.

PARTNER HIGHLIGHTS

Observation: Despite challenges in the market, our partners continue to deliver exceptional coffee quality.

Market Response: They are investing in dry mills, expanding warehouses, upgrading processing equipment, and ensuring compliance with organic and EUDR standards, demonstrating strong commitment to excellence and sustainability.

Impact / Results: Their efforts are already being recognized at Taste of Africa:

• Gujoo Trading: 4th place (Honey), 5th place (Washed)

• Primrose: 1st & 12th place (Natural), 4th place (Experimental)

Outlook: These partnerships ensure reliable access to high-quality coffees, combining innovation, sustainability, and consistency -giving roasters confidence in both quality and supply.

LINE UP HARVEST 25/26

Yirgacheffe :

• Shale Gr1 – Washed
• Chelchele Gr 1 – Natural
• Koke Shalaye Gr 1 – Super Natural
• Wubanchi Gr 1 – Super Natural
• Urabeast Gr 1 – Washed Anaerobic

Guji :

• Wate Gr 1 – Washed
• Wate Gr 1 – Honey – 4^th place Taste Of Harvest crop 25/26
• Danse Mormora Gr 1 – Natural
• Gogogou Gr 1 – Natural
• Haro Gr1 – Natural
• Bule Hora Gr2 – Natural and Organic Certified