A CRUCIAL FIELD VISIT
UNDERSTANDING THE HARVEST IN REAL TIME

Every year, at the start of the harvest season, our green coffee traders travel to Central America to visit our origin office in Guatemala. This annual trip offers a chance to assess the latest crop, cup freshly harvested samples, and engage directly with producers and partners. Together with our local green specialty coffee sourcer, Sébastien Adant, Maxime set out to observe the harvest up close.

This year, one theme dominated every conversation: delayed crops due to erratic climate patterns. Unpredictable rains and temperature fluctuations have disrupted the usual harvest timeline, creating unique challenges for producers.

A HARVEST IN SLOW MOTION
CLIMATE IMPACT ON CENTRAL AMERICAN COFFEE

Across Central America, the coffee harvest is running behind schedule. The culprit? Extreme weather events. Erratic rainfall and higher-than-usual temperatures have thrown the growing cycle off balance, delaying the ripening process. In the field, the effects were unmistakable: coffee cherries that should have been deep red and ready for picking remained green and unevenly ripened on the trees.

Warehouses that are typically bustling with freshly harvested coffee stood emptier than usual. Producers spoke about adjusting picking schedules, modifying post-harvest techniques, and striving to maintain quality despite the shifting conditions.

For coffee, timing is everything. Picking too early risks underdeveloped flavours; waiting too long can lead to overripe cherries and fermentation issues. This year, more than ever, growers are walking a fine line, making real-time adjustments while hoping for stable conditions ahead.

CLIMATE PATTERNS SHAPING THE COFFEE CYCLE
EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILATION (ENSO) CYCLE 

During normal conditions in the Pacific ocean, trade winds blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia. To replace that warm water, cold water rises from the depths  -a process called upwelling. El Niño and La Niña are two opposing climate patterns that break these normal conditions. Scientists call these phenomena the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. El Niño and La Niña can both have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems, and economies.

El Niño and La Niña events occur every 2 to 7 years, on average, but they don’t occur on a regular schedule. Generally, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña. Both tend to develop during March-June, reach peak intensity during December-April, and then weaken during May-July. However, prolonged El Niño episodes have lasted 2 years, and even as long as 3-4 years. Episodes of El Niño typically last 9-12 months, and La Niña typically lasts 1-3 years.

El Niño (warming phase)
During El Niño, weakened trade winds push warm water eastward toward the Americas, disrupting weather patterns worldwide. Historically, South American fishermen noticed these warming events and named them El Niño de Navidad, as they peak around December.

For coffee producers, El Niño brings significant challenges:

• Drought stress: Water shortages reduce plant vigour, leading to lower yields and smaller bean sizes.
• Delayed flowering & uneven ripening: Inconsistent rainfall disrupts flowering cycles, creating challenges for uniform cherry development.
• Pest and disease pressure: Hot, dry conditions accelerate the spread of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) and coffee borer beetles (Hypothenemus hampei).
• Quality concerns: Heat stress can result in lower bean density, flavour inconsistencies, and potential cup defects.

La  Niña (cooling phase) means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply ‘a cold event’.
La Niña, the opposite of El Niño, strengthens trade winds, pushing warm waters westward and increasing upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters along the American coasts. La Niña can also lead to a more severe hurricane season.

Conversely, La Niña tends to bring excessive rainfall and cooler temperatures, with a different set of challenges. Its impact on coffee production includes:

• Fungal diseases: Persistent humidity increases the risk of coffee leaf rust and root rot.
• Harvest & drying issues: Rain during the harvest period can delay picking and extend drying times, increasing the risk of mold and fermentation defects.
• Potential yield benefits (if moderate): In cases where rainfall is well-distributed, trees can benefit from improved growth and productivity.

NAVIGATING THE 2024/25 HARVEST CYCLE

The interplay of El Niño and La Niña poses complex challenges for coffee production, affecting yields, quality, and supply chains. This 2024/2025 season, the coffee harvest in Central America is unfolding under El Niño & la Niña’s conditions, bringing distinct challenges at each stage of production:

• Spring 2024 (Flowering & Early Development)
  Higher-than-normal temperatures and prolonged dry spells affected flowering, leading to lower cherry development. Heat stress also made plants more vulnerable to pests and diseases.
• Autumn-Winter 2024 (Cherry Growth & Ripening)
  Irregular rainfall patterns created additional challenges. Sudden downpours in some regions caused premature fruit drop, reducing yields. Persistent humidity elsewhere increased the risk of fungal diseases, weakening trees and affecting production.
• January 2025 (Harvest & Drying Challenges)
  The drying phase is particularly vulnerable to El Niño-driven weather fluctuations. Higher humidity and unseasonal rainfall can extend drying times, increasing the risk of parchment defects and reducing cup quality. Many farmers relying on sun-drying face difficulties, with some turning to mechanical drying solutions -adding production costs.

While the full impact of these climate cycles will unfold over the coming months, adaptation is key. Producers are implementing climate-resilient strategies, such as shade management, improved drying infrastructure, and proactive disease prevention.

FIELD INSIGHTS
GUATEMALA: HUEHUETENANGO & ANTIGUA/ATITLÁN  

In Huehuetenango, the higher-altitude farms were hit hard by El Niño’s erratic weather. Cooler nights and delayed rainfall slowed down ripening, leaving producers in a tricky spot –wait longer for ideal maturity or pick selectively to avoid losses.

Despite the delays, quality remained promising. We cupped a range of early samples and found bright acidity, rich sweetness, and balanced profiles -a testament to the skill of producers navigating this unpredictable season.

A visit to Antigua and Atitlán revealed a similar story: patience was key. Irregular rainfall had disrupted flowering cycles, leading to uneven ripening within the same batch. This made harvesting more labor-intensive, as pickers had to carefully select only the cherries that had reached peak ripeness.

During our visit, we tasted extensively and caught the first signs of the new harvest. The coffee was bright, structured, and full of potential, though some waiting remained. As harvest timelines shifted, producers focused on carefully managing their post-harvest processes to ensure consistency and maintain the distinctive profiles for which these regions are known.

EL SALVADOR  

El Niño has not only affected the harvest, but also the post-harvest logistics. Because cherries are ripening later than expected, washing stations and drying mills have had to deal with a shortened processing window, increasing the pressure on infrastructure and logistics.

One of the key people tackling this challenge is Fernando Alfa, a respected post-harvest expert. His washing station and drying mill not only serve his own production, but also neighboring producers who rely on his expertise. He offers them a place to dry and sort accurately. This year, he is adjusting the fermentation and drying schedules to take into account the late harvest, so that quality is not compromised by the delays.

We also visited a boutique farm producing an exceptional Pacamara variety. Here, the delayed harvest meant that only a small portion of the cherries had been picked, and the team was carefully monitoring the rest.

GLOBAL IMPACT
DELAYED SHIPMENTS & MARKET UNCERTAINTY

The ripple effects of a delayed harvest extend beyond Central America. Later picking means later shipments, leading to supply disruptions and potential price fluctuations in the global market. Key impacts include:

• Later arrivals: Central American coffees will land in Europe later than usual
• Tighter supply in the short term: With warehouses still empty, some exporters are delaying commitments.
• Market volatility: While quality remains high, delayed arrivals may drive pricing shifts.

Long-term climate trends suggest that both El Niño and La Niña events could become more intense, with lasting consequences for coffee production:

• Temperature extremes and erratic rainfall could make traditional coffee-growing areas less predictable for farmers.
• Increased climate variability is likely to cause yield fluctuations, impacting market supply and pricing.
• Producers must explore climate-resilient varieties, agroforestry systems, and improved drying methods to mitigate risks.
• At the supply chain level, price volatility linked to extreme weather may become a more regular occurrence. While the 2024/25 season has already seen price fluctuations, the broader concern for traders and buyers is how to navigate these shifting conditions without relying on speculation.

Rather than focusing on uncertainty, the key takeaway is preparedness -by investing in adaptation, monitoring weather trends, and strengthening partnerships with producers, the industry can build resilience against future climate challenges.

At CUPRIMA, we keep a close eye on every detail -24/7, through our origin office. But nothing compares to seeing it all firsthand. That’s why Maxime, our specialty green coffee trader, joined forces with Sébastien from CUPRIMA Central America to visit producers in Guatemala and El Salvador, gaining deeper insights on the ground.

THE ROAD AHEAD
FOR EUROPEAN SPECIALTY ROASTERS

What Central American Harvest Insights Mean for European (specialty) roasters

✅ Delayed Arrivals – Fresh Central American crops that would typically be on the water in February or March are now expected to arrive in Europe a few weeks later.

✅ Quality remains a priority – Producers are fully focused on maintaining quality excellence, even as timelines shift.

✅ Short-Term Supply Challenges – With warehouses still empty, some exporters are holding off on shipments, leading to tighter avaimability.

✅ Potential Market Fluctuations – Although quality remains high, delayed arrivals can impact market dynamics, affecting availability and scheduling for roasters.
✅ First samples in March – Shipment quality samples will arrive at our offices in March for final cupping and selection.

For roasters, this means a slightly longer wait for fresh Central American coffee -but also a unique opportunity to secure exceptional lots before they land.

WHAT’S NEXT?
FIRST SHIPMENT SAMPLES & EXCLUSIVE CUPPING EVENT

At CUPRIMA, we stay hands-on, closely monitoring every detail through our origin office. That’s why Maxime, our specialty green coffee trader, traveled to Guatemala and El Salvador with Sébastien from CUPRIMA Central America -to meet producers, see the harvest up close, and gather firsthand insights.

Now, he’s back and ready to share what he’s learned. And the best way to understand the 2025 Central American crop? Taste it yourself.

In early March, we’ll cup shipment samples to verify quality before they reach SEABRIDGE. But for those eager to get a first taste, Maxime will host an exclusive cupping session on Tuesday, 25 March 2025 | 9:30 – 11:00, featuring the freshest arrivals from Guatemala and El Salvador.

ANTWERP SPECIALTY CUPPING SESSIONS, BELGIUM – SPECIAL GUATEMALA & EL SALVADOR EDITION
HOSTED BY: Maxime Lemploy – CUPRIMA Coffee.
Maxime will share key insights, stories, and images from his journey, while he will be spinning the freshest Guatemalan and Savadorian crops straight from the latest harvest
DATE: Tuesday, 25 March 2025 | 9:30 – 11:00
VENUE: The legendary cupping room at EFICO – Italiëlei 181 – 2018 Antwerp, Belgium
VIP PASS: Want a spot at the cupping table or curious about Maxime’s Central American harvest insights? Hit up Maxime to lock in your spot!

Why join?

📍 Be among the first to taste new Central American crops before they land in Europe.
📍 Gain exclusive insights into how El Niño has shaped this harvest.
📍 Explore distinctive flavor profiles and processing techniques.
📍 Secure your supply for the upcoming season.

Maxime will be sending out invites soon, but why wait?
Secure your spot at the cupping table now by clicking below -we look forward to seeing you there!