THERE ISN’T JUST ONE ‘COFFEE PRICE’

There isn’t just one “coffee price”. Along the coffee chain, prices are formed at different points -from prices at origin and export markets to FOB prices, futures benchmarks, differentials and, ultimately, the price of roasted coffee.

For green Arabica coffee, one of the most closely watched market references is the Coffee C futures contract, traded on ICE Futures U.S. The Coffee C is widely used as a benchmark when pricing green coffee. A particular coffee is typically priced in relation to the C through a differential -a premium or discount to the benchmark. The price of a specific coffee can therefore move differently from the C.

The C is a benchmark, not the price of every physical coffee. To understand what is behind a price move, we also need to look at what is happening in the physical coffee market.

FROM EXPECTATIONS TO PHYSICAL COFFEE

As new information becomes available, those expectations can change -sometimes before the expected change in physical supply or demand actually occurs.

At the same time, developments in the physical market can change those expectations. Harvest progress, exports, stocks and logistics provide evidence of how much coffee is becoming available, where it is and when it can reach the market.

To understand a price move, it therefore helps to follow the coffee itself -from crop to market.

FOLLOWING COFFEE THROUGH THE SUPPLY CHAIN 

The physical side of the coffee market can be read through several connected signals.

A crop may be forecast months before it is harvested. Once harvested, coffee still needs to be processed and prepared for export. After leaving origin, it may remain in transit or in storage before reaching the market where it is needed.

Each step tells us something different.

The question is not simply how much coffee exists, but what coffee is becoming available, where it is, and when it can reach the market.

CROP – WHAT WILL ACTUALLY BE HARVESTED? 

In its June 2026 Coffee Annual, the USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at 71.9 million 60-kg bags, including 47.5 million bags of Arabica and 24.4 million bags of Robusta. The forecast reflects the positive biennial cycle, favourable growing conditions and an expansion in planted area.

That is a significant volume. But a production forecast is still an estimate. It does not tell us exactly how much coffee will ultimately be harvested, which qualities will be available, or when that coffee will reach the market.

By September, Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest was largely in its final stages, with new-crop coffee already moving into the market. The focus can therefore shift from what might be produced to what is actually entering the supply chain.

And harvested coffee is not automatically available to every buyer. It still needs to be processed, prepared for export and moved through the supply chain. Availability is also about more than volume: buyers need particular qualities, grades and cup profiles.

The next signal is therefore what is actually leaving origin.

EXPORTS – WHAT IS ACTUALLY LEAVING ORIGIN?

Export data provide a more concrete signal of coffee moving from origin into the international market.

Let’s stay with Brazil. According to Cecafé’s August 2026 export report, Brazil exported 4.155 million 60-kg bags of coffee in August, 31% more than in August 2025 and the country’s best August on record. The increase was driven by greater availability of new-crop Arabica and, particularly, strong exports of Canephora.

This confirms that the new crop is not only being harvested –it is already moving into international trade.

But one country’s export performance does not tell us the whole global story. ICO data show that world coffee exports during the first ten months of coffee year 2025/26, from October 2025 to July 2026, were almost unchanged year on year: 118.39 million bags, compared with 118.43 million in the same period of 2024/25.

The composition, however, changed significantly. Over the 12 months ending July 2026, Arabica exports declined to 80.96 million bags, from 86.37 million, while Robusta exports increased to 60.01 million bags, from 54.67 million.

The headline export volume therefore does not tell the whole story.

For the physical market, the useful questions are:

• Which coffee is moving?
• From which origins?
• In what quantities?
• And when is it moving?

Exports tell us what has left origin. The next question is where that coffee is being held -and what the reported stock figures actually represent.

STOCKS – WHERE IS THE COFFEE?

Once coffee has left origin, it can be in transit, stored at origin or held in warehouses in consuming markets. Stock figures provide a snapshot of coffee held within a particular part of the supply chain -not a complete measure of all coffee available in the market.

This distinction matters. A low reported stock level does not necessarily mean that coffee is physically scarce everywhere. Coffee may still be at origin, in transit or in warehouses that are not included in a particular stock figure. Equally, higher stocks do not necessarily mean that the particular coffee a buyer needs is immediately available.

ICE-certified stocks are an even more specific measure. They represent coffee that has been certified for delivery against the Coffee C futures contract and held in exchange-licensed warehouses. Antwerp and Bremen/Hamburg are among the European delivery locations.

Current market conditions show why this distinction matters. ICE-certified Arabica stocks have fallen to exceptionally low levels, while traders are preparing substantial volumes of Brazilian Arabica for delivery into ICE warehouses. More than 62,000 bags had already arrived at exchange depots for grading by 11 September, while larger volumes were being prepared for possible certification.

These movements are significant for the futures market -but coffee awaiting grading is not yet certified stock, and coffee entering Belgium is not automatically destined for the ICE system.

Recent Brazilian export data nevertheless provide an interesting physical-market signal: Brazilian coffee exports to Belgium increased sharply in August. Belgium is already one of Brazil’s largest export destinations, and Antwerp is an important European delivery point for the Coffee C.

The key question is therefore not simply how much coffee is being exported to Belgium, but how much of that flow ultimately enters the exchange-certified system -and how much remains in the broader physical market.

And even when coffee is physically there, it still has to move.

LOGISTICS – WHEN WILL THE COFFEE ARRIVE?

Shipping schedules, port capacity, container availability, vessel delays and disruptions along major trade routes can all affect when coffee reaches its destination.

This matters because the physical coffee market is not only about how much coffee exists. It is also about where it is and when it can arrive.

For a green coffee buyer, timing matters. Delays can temporarily tighten availability, while smoother logistics can bring coffee into the market more quickly.

We have now followed the coffee from crop and exports through stocks and logistics. The next question is how these physical market conditions connect to the Coffee C and the price of a particular coffee.

FROM THE C TO THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL COFFEE 

The C price provides the benchmark. But it is not the price of every physical coffee.

Physical Arabica coffees are commonly priced in relation to the C through a differential -a premium or discount applied to the benchmark for a particular coffee.

The differential reflects how that physical coffee is valued relative to the benchmark. It can be influenced by factors such as origin, quality, cup profile, certification, crop timing, local supply and demand, currency, logistics and availability.

In simple terms:

The C provides the market reference. The differential reflects the conditions of the particular physical coffee.

For example, if the C is at 300 US cents per lb and a coffee is offered at +20, the price basis is 320 US cents per lb. If the C moves while the differential remains unchanged, the physical price moves with it. But if the differential changes as well, the physical price can move differently from the C.

This is why two coffees can respond differently to the same movement in the futures market.

For a green coffee buyer, the question is therefore not only where the C is moving, but also what is happening to the differential -and why.

PUTTING THE SIGNALS TOGETHER

This is where looking across the entire coffee chain becomes useful.

At origin, crop prospects, harvest progress, local sales, processing and export preparation provide an early view of what may become available to the market.

Further along the chain, exports, shipping, logistics, arrivals and stocks show how that coffee is actually moving towards the market.

The signals do not always move in the same direction -and they do not always move at the same time.

A larger crop can improve expectations for future supply without immediately increasing physical availability.

Strong global exports can coexist with tight availability of a particular origin or quality.

Higher reported stocks can indicate greater availability, but some of that coffee may already be committed, may not yet be certified for exchange delivery, or may not be the coffee a particular buyer needs.

And a futures price can move on expectations about what is coming, rather than on what is physically available today.

This is why the most useful market view comes from connecting the signals rather than following any single number.

For a green coffee buyer, the question is not simply:

“Where is the coffee price going?”

It is:

“What is behind the move -and what does it mean for the coffee I actually need to buy?”

PUTTING THE PIECES BEHIND THE PRICE TOGETHER

A coffee price is the visible result of many signals -from crop prospects and physical availability to exports, stocks, logistics, differentials and the futures market.

Understanding what is behind that price means bringing these pieces together.

This is where EFICO’s expertise comes together.

From our teams in coffee-growing countries, who follow crops, harvests, producers and local market developments, to our international trade teams, who follow the market and physical coffee, we connect knowledge from across the coffee chain. Our traffic and logistics specialists follow shipments, ports, warehouses and delivery flows, while finance, legal, compliance and sustainability teams bring their expertise to the wider picture.

We connect these signals to help you make informed decisions  -today and further ahead.

Whether you want to check current availability and prices, keep a close eye on your stocks, plan future purchases or make sense of a move in the C market, contact us. We’re glad to connect the signals, talk you through the complexity and plan with greater clarity.

EFICO – Insights into EFICO’s 2025 Sourcing Strategy & Market Trends
USDA – Coffee Annual, Brazil, June 2026
Cecafé – Brazilian Coffee Export Report, September 2026
International Coffee Organization (ICO) –
Coffee Market Report / Statistics
ICE – Coffee C Futures
Trading Economics – Coffee C Futures
SEABRIDGE
EFICO GROUP REPORT | YEAR 2025
RAPPORT DU GROUPE EFICO | ANNÉE 2025
INFORME DEL GRUPO EFICO | AÑO 2025