BRAZIL COFFEE 2025/2026 UPDATE

BRAZIL COFFEE 2025/2026 – OVERVIEW

Brazil remains the world’s largest coffee producer, and 2025 is no exception. As of the beginning of September 2025, the coffee harvest was 99% complete, with 100% of the robusta crop and 98% of the Arabica crop collected. Rainfall has been a major watchpoint over the past several months, with some Arabica areas receiving up to 50mm and Robusta zones around 30mm. Despite these conditions, bean development is strong and average screen size is above last year’s, indicating robust quality.

Light frosts at the end of June in certain Arabica regions caused only minor impact, and the mild climate extended the processing window, allowing for greater volumes of washed and semi-washed coffees.

Post-harvest, vegetation looks strong across both Arabica and Robusta farms, signaling high production potential for the next cycle. There is also a widespread movement of crop renewal and expansion, with many nurseries reporting complete sell-outs, showcasing farmer optimism. Sustainability initiatives are gaining traction: over 200 farmers participated in “Building Soil Health” training with EMATER-MG in Minas Gerais, demonstrating increasing adoption of regenerative practices and long-term soil health improvements.

Broader uncertainties -including Red Sea disruptions, U.S. tariffs, and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), continue to influence market sentiment. Early EUDR-related buying in 2024, combined with signs of stockpiling, is expected to shape price movements in the second half of 2025.

BRAZIL COFFEE HARVEST 2025/26
QUANTITY, QUALITY, TRADE & SUSTAINABILITY INSIGHTS

QUANTITY / VOLUME

Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest is projected at 62.3 million bags, down 3.4% from previous estimates and 5.3% year-on-year.

5 YEAR HARVEST OVERVIEW

Season	Crop Year	Harvest (m bags)	Cycle Phase	YoY Change
2021/22	Off-year	50.9	Off-year	–
2022/23	On-year	55.1	On-year	+8.3%
2023/24	Off-year	66.4	Off-year	+20.5%
2024/25	On-year	65.8	On-year	−0.9%
2025/26*	Off-year	62.3	Off-year	−5.3%

*2025/26 is a projection

NOTE: Brazilian Arabica follows a biennial cycle, alternating between on-years (when trees typically yield more as they recover energy) and off-years (when yields are naturally lower after heavy production). Weather and farm management practices can influence the magnitude of the differences each year.

Arabica: 36.5 million bags

Revised down from 38.7m (previous estimate) and below 44.7m in 2024/25.
Represents an 18.4% year-on-year decline, reflecting lower yields following poor flowering and frost events.

Robusta: 25.8 million bags

Up 21.9% year-on-year, supported by favourable weather, irrigation, and expanded acreage.
Robusta regions continue to show strong production potential

Regional Notes:

South Minas: Arabica yields slightly below average despite generally favourable conditions.
Espírito Santo & Rondônia: Robusta production remains strong.

QUALITY & TRENDS

Mild climate allowed producers to extend washed and semi-washed coffee processing, contributing to overall quality.
Average bean size remains above 2024 levels.

Regional notes:

Minas Gerais: Maintains high coffee quality; some producers in South Minas are using irrigation for the first time.
Cerrado: Adoption of regenerative agriculture practices is improving soil health and long-term quality potential.

GEOPOLITICAL & TRADE FACTORS

U.S. tariffs: A 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports took effect on August 6, 2025, covering both Arabica and Robusta.

Exports: With reduced U.S. demand, shipments are increasingly directed toward Europe and Asia.

PRICE & MARKET DYNAMICS

Arabica futures reached $3.74/lb in August 2025, up from $2.80 in late July, reflecting frost concerns, tariffs, and lower ICE inventories.

Market volatility is expected to continue into September and October, as rainfall and flowering conditions for the next cycle become clearer.

Regional notes:

high coffee quality; some producers in South Minas are using irrigation for the first time.
Cerrado: Adoption of regenerative agriculture practices is improving soil health and long-term quality potential.

2026/2027 OUTLOOK

Flowering Stage:
Early flowering for the 2026/27 crop is underway in South Minas, Cerrado Mineiro, and parts of São Paulo, key Arabica-producing regions.

Seedling Demand & Crop Renewal:
Nurseries report full sell-outs, indicating strong farmer investment in tree renovation and replacement.

Post-Harvest Vegetation:
Healthy vegetative growth across farms supports solid production potential for the next cycle.

Sustainability Momentum:
Regenerative practices and soil health training continue to expand, contributing to long-term productivity and supporting Arabica quality.

Crop Prospects:
Favourable rainfall from November 2024 through March 2025 has benefited tree development. Recent cold snaps may have caused limited damage to tree tops in isolated areas, but overall conditions suggest a positive foundation for the 2026/2027 crop.

2025/2026 HARVEST INSIGHTS FROM OUR PRODUCER PARTNERS

FAZENDAS DUTRA

At Fazendas Dutra, cherry maturation has been excellent, and our recent cupping of pre-shipment samples confirms very good quality in this crop. However, yields have fallen short of expectations.
“We realised this at the end of the harvest when we assessed the yield per bag”, explains Pedro Henrique, Head of Sales and Export at Fazendas Dutra.

Labour has been the main challenge. Finding people willing to work in the fields has become increasingly difficult, as farm work is demanding and less appealing for the younger generation. At Dutra, mechanisation is limited by the mountainous terrain, so harvesting still relies heavily on manual picking, supported by ‘mechanical hands’. To attract the 600 workers required during the peak of harvest, salaries had to be raised significantly.

The combination of lower yields per bag and higher labour costs has made this a particularly expensive harvest for Fazendas Dutra.

DATERRA

This season in Brazil has once again brought challenges for Daterra. Even early in the harvest, assessments of the cherries on the trees pointed to a smaller crop than last year. After milling, further unexpected issues appeared:

While beans reached a good size, they are slightly lighter in weight -even within the 16/18 screen, meaning more beans are required to complete a standard 60-kg bag.
A higher share of withered and shell beans was observed, likely linked to the erratic climate of recent years.
Pressure from coffee berry borer has also been somewhat stronger this season.

Despite the challenges, Daterra remains committed to delivering consistent quality. Through additional rounds of cleaning and careful selection, they are ensuring that only the best beans make it through. While overall volumes will be lower and production costs higher, the final lots still reflect the precision and dedication Daterra is known for.

FAZENDA JAGUARA

At Fazenda Jaguara, this year’s harvest was slightly smaller due to the effects of drought, frost, and hail in recent years. However, with lower yields, the coffee cherries developed a higher concentration of sugars, resulting in exceptional quality and highly expressive cup profiles.

This season, the team has focused on fermentation and innovative natural processing methods to produce high-quality coffees, including lots suitable for competitions. They are also expanding cultivation into higher-altitude areas -between 1,300 and 1,500 meters above sea level -targeting nano and micro lots using disease-resistant varieties.

Producing these specialty coffees comes with real challenges. “Fermentation is a risky process”, says Natalia, founder of Fazenda Jaguara. “It can damage the beans, leading to some loss in volume. We also have to do selective picking, which requires 3 to 4 more rounds of harvest compared to conventional methods. Drying takes significantly longer too. It’s a big investment, but we believe it’s worth it for the quality we achieve.”

BRAZIL COFFEE 2025/2026 x CUPRIMA COFFEE

➢ This year’s harvest in Brazil brings excellent quality, as confirmed by our pre-shipment quality controls.
➢ However, with smaller volumes than anticipated, securing sufficient supply with our exporters has been more challenging.
➢ Pre-booking of the coffees early in the harvest helped us to ensure fast shipment already in September. We expect the coffees to arrive sooner than last year in our warehouse as from November.
➢ Prices remain high, driven both by C-market volatility and the increased production costs faced by Brazilian producers.