ONE COFFEE YEAR, MANY DIFFERENT BEGINNINGS

Earlier this month, we celebrated International Coffee Day. The same date, 1 October, also marked the start of the 2026/27 coffee year used by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) to analyse the global market.

For consumers around the world, coffee is part of daily life throughout the year. Behind that continuity, origins follow different harvest calendars, and the supply chain is constantly in motion. One crop is being harvested while another is developing. Lots are being prepared for export as others travel towards destination or arrive at a roastery.

Coffee flows throughout the year, but the timing of production, preparation, delivery and pricing does not always align.

Think of these as four interconnected clocks: the crop clock, the preparation clock, the logistics clock and the trading clock. Each follows its own timing, while influencing the others. Reading them together helps explain how developments in the global market translate into the coffees, qualities and delivery windows available to roasters.

1. THE CROP CLOCK | From Flowering to Harvest
Flowering → Cherry development → Harvest

The crop clock shapes how much coffee can be produced and when it can be harvested. Its rhythm varies across origins, regions and coffee types; some have one main harvest, while others have additional picking seasons.

Weather influences each stage. Irregular flowering can spread cherry maturation across several picking rounds, while rainfall and temperature during development affect yields and harvest timing. Seasonal influences such as El Niño can add variability, with consequences depending on local conditions and the stage of the crop affected.

Brazil’s 2026/2027 harvest shows why the composition of a crop matters alongside its total volume. CONAB’s September estimate put production at 67.6 million 60-kg bags, up 19.6% from 2025. Yet Arabica production was estimated to rise by 34.8%, while Conilon production declined by 6.6% -different supply developments within the same larger harvest.

Meanwhile, as that harvest drew to a close, flowering was already shaping the next crop. The market was following both the coffee being harvested and the production potential ahead.

2. THE PREPARATION CLOCK | From harvested Coffee to exportable Quality
Processing → Drying → Milling & Grading → Export Readiness

Harvested volume is only part of the supply picture. Processing, drying, milling, grading and quality assessment determine which coffees meet buyers’ specifications -and when they are ready for export.

Rain during harvesting or drying can affect quality and slow preparation. Labour availability, infrastructure and milling capacity also influence how quickly lots move through these stages.

In Brazil, the ICO reported that rain during the 2026/2027 harvest affected quality, contributing to uneven availability across grades. More coffee overall does not automatically mean more of every quality. For a roaster seeking a particular cup profile or specification, the qualities available within the crop matter alongside its size.

3. THE LOGISTICS CLOCK | Every Handover Counts
Booking → Loading → Transit → Arrival → Warehousing → Delivery 

From origin to roastery, coffee moves through a carefully coordinated sequence. Containers, vessels, ports, warehouses and trucks each play their part, connected by a network of people coordinating handovers and adapting when conditions change.

A missed vessel connection, port congestion or a change in shipping route can shift the delivery window. Geopolitical tensions add another layer of uncertainty: Houthi attacks in the Red Sea can disrupt maritime routes and extend transit times, while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz can affect energy markets and shipping costs.

The harvest sets the supply in motion. Logistics brings it within reach.

Export figures show coffee leaving origin, but for a roaster, the decisive question is when the coffee will actually be available. A lot ready to ship, a container at sea and stock in a European warehouse each represent a different stage in the journey, with a different timeline and level of exposure to disruption.

4. THE TRADING CLOCK | From Expectations to Commitments
Market & origin intelligence → Contracting & pricing → Delivery commitments

The trading clock operates throughout this journey. Coffee can be contracted before harvest, during preparation, in transit or from warehouse stock. Prices respond to both current availability and expectations of what comes next.

In September 2026, the ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 262.18 US cents/lb, down 8.7% from August. Greater availability from Brazil’s harvest and expectations of ample supply weighed on prices, while low certified Arabica stocks and uncertainty surrounding El Niño provided some support.

The market was weighing several timelines at once: fresh supply becoming available, existing stock constraints and weather risks for future production. A monthly price indicator captures the broader direction; an individual physical offer also reflects the coffee’s origin, quality, availability and delivery conditions.

WHERE THE CLOCKS MEET

A favourable production outlook can influence prices before the coffee concerned is ready to ship. A larger harvest may still leave particular grades in short supply. And coffee available at origin may arrive too late for a planned production run.

For roasters, the challenge is to maintain continuity while supply changes. This means connecting the coffee available today with the qualities and volumes coming next -and understanding when they can reach the roastery.

Reading the four clocks together helps identify where upcoming supply fits existing requirements, where gaps may emerge and when alternatives should be considered. That is why crop forecasts, price movements and shipment data become more useful when assessed together.

At EFICO, we connect these developments to help our clients anticipate their sourcing needs and plan purchases and deliveries around their production schedules.

ALL FOUR CLOCKS, AROUND THE CLOCK

Coffee moves across time zones, and our work follows that movement. At EFICO, we monitor all four clocks around the clock -from crop developments and preparation at origin to market movements, shipments and delivery at the roaster’s door.

Our network at origin, relationships with producers and exporters, and European trading, logistics and warehousing expertise bring these perspectives together. They help us turn market intelligence into coordinated sourcing and delivery plans for our clients.

As EFICO celebrates 100 years in green coffee in 2026, this remains at the heart of our work: connecting a continuously changing supply with the continuity roasters need.

That is why planning ahead together matters. Share your coffee requirements, anticipated volumes and roasting schedule with your EFICO contact, so we can look ahead together and plan your next supply.